Professional Polish Investment Research - Expert Analysis for Foreign Investors

Cognor S.A.

COG.WA Materials
steel eaf-steel scrap-recycling long-products circular-economy industrial
2192.5M LTM Revenue (PLN)
-0.4% Revenue Growth (YoY)

Company Overview

Cognor S.A. is a Polish-based, vertically integrated steel group operating a closed-loop, scrap-based production model. The Group sources ferrous scrap, produces steel billets in electric arc furnaces, and rolls long steel products such as reinforcing bars and merchant bars. Cognor operates production sites in Gliwice, Kraków, Stalowa Wola, and Siemianowice Śląskie, positioning itself as one of the leading EAF steel producers in Central Europe.

Business Segments

  • Scrap procurement and trading
  • Steel billet production (EAF-based)
  • Rolling mills – long steel products
  • External sales of scrap, billets, and finished products

Key Drivers

  • EU infrastructure spending and construction demand
  • Spread between scrap prices and finished steel products prices
  • Cognor consistently communicates that steel for 155 mm ammunition, armour steel, and other defence-industry applications is intended to become one of the company’s core business pillars, supporting diversification toward higher-value, more resilient end markets.
  • Ramp-up of new rolling mill capacity in Siemianowice Śląskie
  • Implementation of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism)
  • High Scrap Availability & positive Circular Economy Trend

Key Risks

  • Weak Steel Demand in Western Europe and Poland, which means lower prices for steel products
  • Pressure from low-cost imports, particularly from Ukraine
  • High leverage ~PLN 850MLN of net debt
  • Volatility in scrap prices and energy costs

What to Watch

  • Successful hot commissioning and ramp-up of the Siemianowice rolling mill
  • Spread between scrap and billet finished steel product prices
  • Stabilization of net debt and covenant compliance
  • Evolution of EU safeguard and anti-dumping measures
  • Recovery of construction and infrastructure demand in Poland
  • Increase in Coking Coal prices impacting BF-BOF steel producers (Cognor competitors)
  • Decrease of interest rates in Poland. Interest rates impact Cognor's cost of debt, as the company has significant debt exposure.

Foundational Analysis

Foundational Analysis v1.0 Last updated: 2025-09-30

Business Model

Cognor operates a vertically integrated steelmaking model based on electric arc furnaces using ferrous scrap as the primary input. The Group captures margin across scrap sourcing, billet production, and rolling of long steel products, with additional flexibility to sell semi-finished products externally.

Competitive Positioning

One of the largest scrap-based EAF steel producers in Poland, with a strong domestic footprint and increasing scale following recent capacity expansions. Competitiveness is driven by integration, proximity to scrap supply, and modernized production assets.

Economics & Capital Allocation

From an operational perspective, Cognor went through the largest investment program in its history between 2022 and 2025. This resulted in a sharp increase in production capacity, but also in a deep compression of current margins. Modernization of the Kraków rolling mill: additional ~150–200k tons per year of higher-quality products. New rolling mill capacity in Siemianowice Śląskie: target ~450k tons per year of light sections. Earlier modernization of the Gliwice steelworks: several hundred thousand tons per year of additional crude steel. In practice, Cognor enters 2026 as a group capable—at full utilization—of processing around 1 million tons of finished steel products annually, with a highly automated machinery base. The issue is that volumes did not grow in line with capacity. The spread were falling from healthy PLN 1,800–2,000/ton in 2022 to PLN 1,000–1,200/ton in 2024 and 2025 due to Chinese oversupply and weak European construction. The 2026 investment thesis hinges on spreads recovering to PLN 1,250–1,500/ton and on finally achieving high utilization at the Siemianowice and Kraków facilities.

Capital allocation in recent years has been dominated by a large-scale investment program (~PLN 830m) focused on modernizing and expanding rolling capacity. Dividends are secondary to balance-sheet stabilization and completion of capex.

Long-term Risks

Structural overcapacity in European steel, prolonged weak construction demand, sustained low steel spreads, and balance-sheet stress if profitability does not recover post-investment cycle.

What Would Break the Thesis

  • Failure to achieve positive EBITDA after full ramp-up of new capacity
  • Sustained pressure from low-priced imports eroding domestic margins
  • Inability to reduce leverage or refinance debt on acceptable terms
  • Structural decline in long steel demand in Central Europe
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Financial Performance

PLN Showing 10 quarters | Metric: Revenue (Quarterly)

Quarterly Data

Metric 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2024Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2025Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3
Income Statement Revenue (Quarterly) 887.4M 764.6M 499.5M 686.3M 550.9M 498.3M 558.0M 543.3M 594.9M 496.3M
Income Statement Gross Profit (Quarterly) 103.6M 88.2M 41.8M 25.5M 23.6M 1.7M -8.6M 24.1M 35.0M 10.9M
Income Statement EBITDA (Quarterly) 100.8M 54.0M 0 26.7M 26.6M -7.0M -21.7M 6.0M 21.5M -4.8M
Income Statement EBIT (Quarterly) 88.6M 41.5M 60.0M 14.7M 14.4M -19.8M -35.2M -7.9M 7.7M -19.4M
Income Statement Net Income (Quarterly) 172.3M 25.1M 30.1M 6.2M 2.2M -30.4M -35.5M -14.8M -11.7M -26.4M
Costs Selling & Distribution Costs 33.3M 33.6M 22.6M 34.8M 28.9M 25.9M 29.2M 28.6M 29.9M 26.9M
Costs Administrative Expenses 14.7M 23.7M 17.2M 17.4M 19.8M 18.3M 17.0M 18.3M 21.7M 23.5M
Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow 34.1M 56.3M 31.7M 3.7M 310.9M -71.2M -84.4M 21.1M -29.2M 65.2M
Cash Flow Capital Expenditure -67.0M -86.2M -78.2M -154.1M -251.4M -81.8M -454.6M -33.0M -104.3M -27.1M
Cash Flow Free Cash Flow 101.1M 142.5M 109.9M 157.8M 562.3M 10.7M 370.2M 54.1M 75.2M 92.3M
Cash Flow Depreciation & Amortization 12.2M 12.6M 11.9M 12.0M 12.2M 12.8M 13.6M 13.9M 13.8M 14.6M
LTM Metrics Revenue (LTM) 887.4M 1.7B 2.2B 2.8B 2.5B 2.2B 2.3B 2.2B 2.2B 2.2B
LTM Metrics EBITDA (LTM) 100.8M 154.8M 154.8M 181.5M 107.3M 46.2M 24.6M 3.9M -1.2M 1.0M
LTM Metrics Net Income (LTM) 172.3M 197.4M 227.4M 233.6M 63.5M 8.0M -57.5M -78.5M -92.4M -88.3M
Profitability Gross Margin 11.7% 11.5% 8.4% 3.7% 4.3% 0.3% -1.5% 4.4% 5.9% 2.2%
Profitability EBITDA Margin 11.4% 7.1% 0.0% 3.9% 4.8% -1.4% -3.9% 1.1% 3.6% -1.0%
Profitability EBIT Margin 10.0% 5.4% 12.0% 2.1% 2.6% -4.0% -6.3% -1.5% 1.3% -3.9%
Profitability Net Margin 19.4% 3.3% 6.0% 0.9% 0.4% -6.1% -6.4% -2.7% -2.0% -5.3%
Profitability ROIC - - - - 6.9% 3.1% -2.9% -4.1% -4.8% -4.9%
Profitability Cash Conversion 20.0% 224.0% 105.0% 60.0% 14329.0% 234.0% 238.0% -142.0% 249.0% -247.0%
Balance Sheet Current Assets 1.7B 1.4B 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.2B 1.0B 1.1B 1.1B 996.1M
Balance Sheet Current Liabilities 640.1M 567.5M 585.7M 830.7M 764.0M 750.7M 1.2B 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B
Balance Sheet Inventories 679.2M 589.0M 556.3M 524.7M 504.1M 517.5M 470.5M 530.7M 498.5M 469.7M
Balance Sheet Total Equity 1.4B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B 1.2B
Balance Sheet Total Debt 375.9M 433.3M 416.6M 578.6M 695.1M 704.2M 843.8M 650.6M 781.9M 645.2M
Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents 415.3M 251.9M 168.2M 151.0M 483.4M 329.2M 115.2M 6.1M 96.8M 102.4M
Balance Sheet Invested Capital 1.4B 1.4B 1.5B 1.7B 1.5B 1.6B 1.9B 1.8B 1.9B 1.7B
Ratios Current Ratio 2.58 2.39 2.12 1.53 1.77 1.62 0.86 0.89 0.80 0.74
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Revenue (Quarterly) - Visual Analysis

Revenue (Quarterly) (PLN)
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Data Source: Financial data sourced from company filings and periodic reports. Values in PLN. Margins and ratios stored as decimals converted to percentages for display.

Recent News & Developments

Sentiment Analysis (Last 6 Months)
Positive 47%
Neutral 13%
Negative 40%

Based on 15 articles

2026-02-02
ESPI neutral

Cognor Holding S.A. Announces Schedule for 2026 Financial Reports

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has released its reporting schedule for the 2026 fiscal year. The company plans to publish its standalone and consolidated annual report for 2025 on April 30, 2026. The quarterly and consolidated quarterly report for Q1 2026 will follow on May 15, 2026, while the semi-annual and consolidated semi-annual report for H1 2026 is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Finally, the quarterly and consolidated quarterly report for Q3 2026 will be issued on November 13, 2026.

This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides transparency and ensures timely access to financial data, which is crucial for monitoring Cognor's performance amidst fluctuating steel demand, energy costs, and evolving EU trade policies.

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2026-01-22
ESPI positive

Cognor Holding S.A. Announces Conditional Admission of New Shares to Warsaw Stock Exchange

Cognor Holding S.A., headquartered in Poraj, has announced that the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW) has conditionally approved the admission and introduction of 51,426,198 ordinary bearer shares from the company's 14th issuance to trading on its regulated market. The shares, identified under the ISIN code PLCNTSL00014, are set to be registered in the securities depository managed by Krajowy Depozyt Papierów Wartościowych S.A. (KDPW) and will commence trading on January 27, 2026, provided the registration is completed on the same day.

Relevance: This development is significant for Cognor S.A. as it reflects the company's efforts to strengthen its financial position and liquidity, which is crucial given its high leverage and capital-intensive operations in the steel industry.

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2025-12-30
ESPI positive

Cognor Holding S.A. Announces Share Capital Increase and Statute Amendments

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has announced the registration of amendments to its company statute following a resolution passed during the Extraordinary General Meeting on November 20, 2025. The changes, registered by the District Court in Częstochowa on December 30, 2025, include an increase in the company’s share capital through the issuance of new ordinary bearer shares (Series 14) and new registered shares (Series 15). The total share capital now stands at PLN 347,130,994.50, divided into 231,420,663 shares with a nominal value of PLN 1.50 each.

The newly issued shares, Series 14 and Series 15, were introduced with the exclusion of pre-emptive rights for existing shareholders. The company also plans to seek admission and introduction of these shares to trading on the regulated market operated by the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The amendments to the company’s statute reflect the updated share capital structure and the terms of the new share issuance.

This development highlights Cognor’s strategic efforts to strengthen its financial position and support its operations across the steel production value chain, which includes scrap collection, recycling, and steel manufacturing using electric arc furnaces (EAF).

Relevance: The share capital increase and statute amendments are significant for Cognor S.A. as they enhance its financial flexibility, which is critical for sustaining operations in the energy-intensive EAF-based steel production process and navigating market challenges such as energy costs and demand fluctuations in the construction industry.

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2025-11-21
ESPI positive

Cognor Holding S.A. Finalizes Public Offering of New and Existing Shares

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has successfully concluded the accelerated book-building process for its public offering. The offering includes 60 million newly issued shares, priced at PLN 5.00 per share, comprising 51,426,198 ordinary bearer shares (Emission 14) and 8,573,802 registered shares (Emission 15). Additionally, 43,582,938 existing shares owned by PS Holdco sp. z o.o. were sold at the same price. The process was managed by IPOPEMA Securities S.A. and Trigon Dom Maklerski S.A., with the final agreement signed on November 21, 2025.

The successful offering strengthens Cognor's financial position and supports its vertically integrated operations, which span scrap collection, steel production, and rolling into finished products. This development is particularly relevant given the company's high leverage and the importance of liquidity in sustaining its modernized asset base and operations.

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2025-11-21
Biznes PAP positive

Cognor Holding Anticipates Surge in Steel Demand Amid Infrastructure Investments and Defense Spending

Cognor Holding S.A. expects a significant increase in steel demand starting next year, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects and heightened defense spending, according to CEO Przemysław Sztuczkowski. The company has announced plans to improve its financial performance and has initiated a share issuance program to support its growth strategy. These developments align with Cognor's vertically integrated business model, which focuses on producing long steel products for construction and industrial applications.

The anticipated rise in steel demand is attributed to Central Europe's growing investment in infrastructure and defense, sectors that heavily rely on steel products such as rebar and steel sections. Cognor's modernized production facilities and scrap-based steel cycle position the company to capitalize on these market opportunities while maintaining a sustainable production approach.

Relevance: This article is relevant to Cognor S.A.'s business profile as it highlights key market trends in infrastructure and defense spending, which directly impact steel demand, a core driver of the company's operations and profitability.

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2025-11-20
ESPI positive

Cognor Holding S.A. Announces Public Offering of Up to 60 Million New Shares

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has initiated a public offering of up to 60 million new ordinary shares, with a nominal value of PLN 1.50 per share. The offering includes two tranches: up to 51.4 million bearer shares (Series 14) and up to 8.57 million registered shares (Series 15). The offering will be conducted in Poland through an accelerated book-building process, targeting qualified investors and those investing at least EUR 100,000. Additionally, the company’s shareholder, PS Holdco sp. z o.o., will offer up to 43.58 million existing shares for sale. The offering is managed by IPOPEMA Securities S.A. and Trigon Dom Maklerski S.A., with Trigon Investment Banking acting as an intermediary.

The offering aims to raise capital for Cognor’s strategic initiatives while providing existing shareholders with pre-emptive rights to participate. The final share allocation and pricing will be determined based on the book-building process. Lock-up agreements have been established, restricting Cognor and its major shareholder from issuing or selling additional shares for six and twelve months, respectively, following the listing of Series 14 shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

The offering complies with EU and Polish securities regulations and excludes jurisdictions such as the United States, Canada, Japan, and Australia. The proceeds are expected to support Cognor’s ongoing operations and growth plans.

Relevance: This development is significant for Cognor as it aligns with its strategy to strengthen its financial position and fund future investments, ensuring competitiveness in the steel industry.

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2025-11-17
ESPI positive

Cognor Holding S.A. Announces Investment Agreement to Optimize Capital Structure

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has entered into an investment agreement with its majority shareholder, PS Holdco sp. z o.o., to execute a dual public offering strategy. Under the agreement, PS Holdco will sell up to 43,582,938 existing shares in a public offering and reinvest the proceeds to acquire an equal number of newly issued shares from Cognor. Additionally, Cognor plans to issue up to 60,000,000 new shares, which will be offered to selected investors through an accelerated book-building process.

The agreement includes conditions such as the appointment of investment firms to facilitate the offerings and shareholder approval for the issuance of new shares. The structure aims to leverage market conditions to optimize share pricing and ensure reinvestment into the company, maintaining PS Holdco's ownership stake while attracting new investors.

The investment strategy is designed to strengthen Cognor's financial position and support its operations, which include scrap-based steel production and advanced manufacturing facilities across Poland and the Czech Republic.

Relevance: This development is significant for Cognor S.A. as it addresses liquidity risks and enhances its capital structure, ensuring continued investment in its vertically integrated steel production model.

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2025-11-16
ESPI negative

Cognor Holding S.A. Faces Financial Challenges Amid Strategic Investments

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has reported significant financial challenges stemming from its ambitious modernization projects. The company has invested heavily in upgrading its facilities, including the construction of a state-of-the-art rolling mill in Siemianowice Śląskie, valued at over PLN 800 million, and modernization efforts in Gliwice and Kraków, totaling PLN 400 million. These projects, while critical for enhancing production capabilities, have led to extended production downtimes, increased costs, and delays, impacting profitability and cash flow.

For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, Cognor reported a net loss of PLN 47.9 million, a marked improvement compared to the PLN 323 million loss in the same period of 2024. Despite this, the company remains in breach of financial covenants related to debt-to-EBITDA ratios and operational cash flow requirements. Cognor has secured conditional waivers from financial institutions, including Santander Bank and mBank, to address these breaches and ensure continued access to financing.

To mitigate liquidity risks, Cognor plans to raise capital through a potential share issuance and is negotiating the release of the second tranche of its investment loan from Santander Bank, valued at PLN 140 million. The funds will be used to finalize the Siemianowice Śląskie project and stabilize operations.

These developments are critical for Cognor's long-term strategy to maintain its competitive edge in the steel industry, particularly as the EU implements stricter carbon regulations and market protection measures.

Relevance: The article highlights Cognor's strategic investments and financial challenges, which directly impact its vertically integrated business model and ability to adapt to market and regulatory changes in the steel industry.

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2025-11-16
ESPI negative

Cognor S.A. Faces Financial Challenges Amid Major Investments and Covenant Breaches

Cognor S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, has reported significant financial challenges stemming from its ambitious modernization projects. The company has invested heavily in upgrading its facilities, including the construction of a state-of-the-art rolling mill in Siemianowice Śląskie, valued at over PLN 800 million, and modernization of its Kraków and Gliwice plants. However, delays in project timelines and increased costs have impacted production and profitability, leading to covenant breaches in its financial agreements.

As of September 30, 2025, Cognor S.A. remains in breach of several financial covenants, including debt-to-EBITDA and operational cash flow ratios, across agreements with Banco Santander, Alior Bank, mBank, and other financial institutions. Despite these breaches, the company has secured conditional approvals from creditors, ensuring continued access to financing. Cognor is also negotiating the release of the second tranche of its investment loan from Banco Santander, amounting to PLN 140 million, to cover remaining obligations for the Siemianowice Śląskie project. Additionally, Cognor Holding S.A. plans to hold an extraordinary general meeting on November 20, 2025, to discuss a potential capital increase to strengthen liquidity.

While the company has faced setbacks, it has successfully initiated production at its new Siemianowice Śląskie facility, with certifications obtained for several product groups. Cognor remains optimistic about its ability to meet obligations and improve financial stability through ongoing negotiations and operational improvements.

Relevance: This article highlights Cognor S.A.'s financial and operational challenges, which are critical to understanding the company's ability to sustain its vertically integrated business model and maintain its position as a key player in the steel industry in Central Europe.

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2025-11-12
ESPI negative

Cognor Holding S.A. Faces Financial Challenges Amid Production Delays and Covenant Breaches

Cognor Holding S.A., a leading producer of long steel products in Central Europe, reported a net loss of PLN 52.9 million for the first nine months of 2025, compared to a loss of PLN 22.1 million in the same period last year. Revenue declined by 5.8% year-on-year to PLN 1,634.5 million, while operating cash flow dropped significantly to PLN 57.1 million from PLN 246.0 million in 2024. The company’s financial performance was impacted by production delays at key facilities, including the Siemianowice Śląskie rolling mill, which only began operations in September 2025 after significant delays.

Major investments in modernizing production facilities, including the Gliwice steel plant, Kraków rolling mill, and Siemianowice Śląskie rolling mill, exceeded budgets and timelines, further straining financial results. Total debt increased to PLN 645.2 million, with breaches in financial covenants such as debt-to-EBITDA and operational cash flow ratios. Financial institutions have granted conditional waivers for these breaches through 2025, providing temporary relief.

Despite challenges, Cognor remains optimistic about its outlook, citing the ramp-up of the Siemianowice Śląskie rolling mill and a planned capital increase via an extraordinary general meeting on November 20, 2025, as critical steps toward stabilizing operations and improving liquidity.

Relevance: This article highlights key financial and operational developments directly impacting Cognor’s vertically integrated steel production model, including challenges in scrap-based steel production, energy costs, and construction industry demand for steel.

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2026 EPS Estimates

Last updated: 2026-02-01
Bear Case
2026 EPS: PLN 0.04
Assumptions:
  • Siemianowice is operating at low capacity levels (below 50 percent)
  • Kraków and Gliwice are also underutilized
  • Steel spreads remain depressed at around PLN 1,000/ton
  • The European defense program is slow to start, with limited orders for steel used in ammunition production
  • CBAM and additional tariffs have limited impact, and cheap steel from Turkey, China, and India continues to flood the EU market
  • EU and Poland's construction remain weak and Poland's energy continues to face high prices similar to the peak of the crisis
Base Case
2026 EPS: PLN 0.3
Assumptions:
  • Siemianowice is reaching around 75 percent of capacity by the end of 2026
  • Spreads are gradually recovering to the level of PLN 1,300–1,500 per ton
  • The defense sector is gradually increasing orders
  • European steel consumption is rebounding by about 3 percent from a very low base
  • The EUR/PLN exchange rate remains stable in the range of 4.20–4.40, and energy prices are slightly lower than at the peak of the crisis
Bull Case
2026 EPS: PLN 0.6
Assumptions:
  • Siemianowice is ramping up to 90 percent of capacity faster, while Kraków and Gliwice are reaching high utilization levels
  • Steel spreads recover to PLN 1,600/ton
  • The European defense program is gaining stronger momentum, with Cognor capturing a significant share of the steel market for ammunition production
  • CBAM and additional tariffs are effectively pushing cheap steel from Turkey, China, and India out of the EU market
  • Poland's energy sector is stabilizing prices at a slightly lower level than today
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Note: EPS estimates are for informational purposes only and represent our analytical framework, not investment recommendations. These financial results estimates are based on stated assumptions and may change as new information becomes available.

Key Metrics

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Recurring Revenue
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Data Source: Key metrics are extracted from company disclosures, periodic reports, and management commentary.